Gosh you’ve seen this movie. The hero is about to capture the villain. Good is about conquer evil when somehow, someway, the villain manages to grab a child or a beautiful woman. The villain quickly puts his gun to the head of his hostage and orders our hero to put down his weapon. The camera focuses on our hero’s eyes. We see his steely resolve. Now we see the ruthlessness, the pure evil of the gunman. Stalemate. It seems like forever. The villain cocks his weapon. Our hero relents and places his gun on the ground. In the next scene we see our now captured hero and the hostage tied to chairs by the villain’s henchmen. As you already know, either they will miraculously free themselves or someone (Batman, the movie’s real hero, or a dog) will somehow save them.
The problem is that you aren’t watching an old movie on Turner Broadcasting System. You are watching CNN.
We are six weeks into the government shutdown. How fitting that the core issue is the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). We have been watching the Republicans complain about this law for 15 years, literally 15 years. Even if you ignore how the law was crafted as a compromise to attract Republican support, how at its core it is the natural evolution of ideas formulated by the Heritage Foundation in the late 80’s, the talking points of Newt Gingrich in the early 90’s, and Romneycare of 2006, the most important fact is that 15 years later the Repeal and Replace crowd have yet to offer a viable replacement. The idea that we could disrupt the health care market, 20% of our economy, and torch health insurance, the way most Americans access and pay for health care, without an alternative is irresponsible at best. And yet, we keep on being dragged to the brink of disaster.
There were many ways to improve the ACA. Democrats had difficulty admitting publicly that Obamacare needed improvement lest their admission would be included in the next attack ad. Republicans did not want to publicly improve the ACA, because they couldn’t appear to want to make it work. (Notice how odd it was to hear MTG’s recent comments about the enhanced tax credit subsidies.)
The Enhanced Premium Tax Credit Subsidies were a part of the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021. This was the first meaningful tweak of Obamacare. The focus was to make health insurance more affordable by tying the tax credit subsidies to a percentage of the individual’s/family’s income. These subsidies were a huge help to people age 55 to 64 ½, individuals who pay higher premiums due to their age. And the enhanced tax credit subsidies of the ARPA also made health insurance affordable to the residents of states that chose to not expand Medicaid. Many, perhaps millions, of Americans will lose their health insurance if the enhanced premium tax credits are eliminated. This was the intentional choice of the Republican Congress and Donald Trump. The One Big Beautiful Bill of earlier this year intentionally excluded the continuation of the enhanced premium tax credit subsidies.
The One Big Beautiful Bill was passed by reconciliation. The bill included significant cuts to the social safety net and big tax cuts for the wealthy. The Republicans only needed a simple majority to ram through the legislation. The only chance the Democrats had to slow down or stop this Robinhood in Reverse was now through the filibuster, preventing the quick passage of a continuing resolution to fund the government. Hence the government shut-down.
Donald Trump has no interest in health care or health insurance. We have been waiting for his plan for 10 years. He does hate/resent President Obama and would love to terminate Obamacare. Instead of negotiating with the Democrats, he chose to take the American people hostage. Trump cut off the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits to 42 million Americans. The courts ordered the administration to utilize emergency funds. Trump took this to the Supreme Court, twice. The Trump administration fought hard to not provide food for children and the elderly, even threatening the states that tried to fund the missing money. Other Americans were experiencing problems at the airports. In short, the president, his administration, and the Republican Congress were doing everything they could do to inflict pain. Our most vulnerable were being held hostage.
Who would blink? Look into the eyes of the Democrats. See the steely resolve. Now look at Donald Trump withholding money for food. Look again at the Dems. Now back to Trump who is about to treat the social safety net like the east wing of the White House. Would the villain starve millions of Americans? YES. Eight of the Democratic Senators broke ranks and surrendered. The government shutdown will end in a few days. Government employees will be paid. SNAP benefits will eventually be released. There will be a vote in the Senate, sometime in December, to extend the enhanced tax credits. The bill will be fiercely negotiated, the benefits watered down, and it will still be defeated. A meaningful health insurance bill will not be signed by this president.
It was a terrible choice, food or health care. These movies usually have a happy ending. I can’t promise that this time. Right now the Dems and the American public are waiting for Batman, a real hero, or a dog.
Dave
Picture – Hey Moreno, Not So Tight! – David L Cunix